The Week in Review: April 20, 2026
Stocks Rise to New Highs
The Nasdaq hit fresh record highs on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, capping off a strong week for tech stocks. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 also made history, closing above 7,000 for the first time. It kept building on those gains through the end of the week.
Recent action stands in stark contrast from just a few weeks ago, and the new highs come despite the war with Iran. Why? Largely, that’s because the stock market reflects what investors expect will happen down the road, not how things look right now. Economists and market analysts often point out that stocks move based on predictions about the future—where the economy, profits, and interest rates are headed—rather than a simple snapshot of today’s conditions.
In essence, with a ceasefire in effect, investors collectively believe that the war will end soon and oil and other commodities will gradually exit the Strait, limiting any economic impact at home.
On Friday morning Iran said it would fully open shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil supply. Oil tumbled by $10 per barrel, stocks added to recent gains, but the president said the blockade of Iran will continue.
Note in the graphic below that stocks have closely tracked the price of oil since the war began. The vertical dashed lines highlight investor reaction to changing oil prices.
Between March 30 and April 7, however, stocks began to break free of oil’s tight grip. Rising crude prices didn’t prevent investors from snapping up equities during that short period.
On April 13, the S&P 500 Index had completely erased losses incurred since the start of the war. But the price of oil remained nearly 50% above its pre-war price.
Although the decline in crude last week helped fuel recent gains in stocks, investors are collectively betting that a new round of hostilities won’t reignite.
The expanding US economy, expectations of a very strong Q1 profit season, stable interest rates, and rising profit estimates for the remainder of the year, according to LSEG, are also fueling recent optimism.
In short, the selloff in March was relatively restrained given the gravity of events in the Middle East. Continued economic and profit growth, coupled with the prospect the conflict will be resolved, has underpinned stocks.
Market Summary
Two FOR THE ROAD
The Wall Street Journal recently published a fascinating set of data visualizations showing how life has changed for the average American worker over the past few centuries. In short, despite all the hand-wringing over our transition out of a manufacturing-dominated economy, the modern worker has a lot to be grateful for. – WSJ, October 27, 2025
More good news! The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reports that traffic deaths in the US were 6.7 percent lower in 2025 than in 2024, reaching the second-lowest death rate per mile traveled ever recorded. And, US pedestrian deaths were 10.9 percent lower in the first half of 2025 than in the same period a year earlier, though they remained slightly above the 2019 level.
I hope you have a wonderful week!
Warmest Regards,
Bill Stordahl, CFP®
Managing Director
Stordahl Capital Management
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