The Week in Review: October 7, 2024
Job Growth Blows Past Expectations
Well, that was unexpected.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, about 100,000 more than economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected. The unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.2%, slipped to 4.1%.
Additionally, job growth was revised higher for July and August.
The graphic above illustrates the average monthly change in nonfarm payrolls over the last three months. While the overall trend is lower, the 3-month average of 186,000 jobs through September signals that the economy continues to expand.
No doubt, Fed officials will take notice.
At last month’s meeting, the Fed voted to reduce the fed funds rate by a half-percentage point, primarily because prior employment data had reflected slower job growth, and policymakers were worried that the labor market might soften too much.
So, where might the Fed be headed? Last month's strength appears to have shut the door on another half-point rate cut at the November 7 meeting. A 25-basis point reduction (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) seems more likely.
Given the resiliency in the labor market, it could even be argued that September’s 50 bp rate cut was premature.
But could July and August have been artificially soft (data quirks), and September was simply a catch-up and an outlier? Or might we begin to see more robust job growth? It’s too soon to answer definitively.
We’ll probably get some clarity when the October jobs report is released next month; however, the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene could muddy October’s data.
Market Summary
Two for the Road
Ford has filed a patent to collect information from motorists and target them with ads as they drive. The data would include the vehicle’s destination and route and conversations between human occupants, all of which would help determine the ads shown on the in-car screens. - Fortune, September 10, 2024
Seniors are frequent victims of financial fraud, and for every one reported case of elder abuse, 24 others go unreported. According to a study cited by the National Center on Elder Abuse, The study pegs the annual losses from elder financial abuse at $28.3 billion. - Barron’s, June 14, 2024
Please do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or concerns. I hope you have a wonderful week!
Bill Stordahl, CFP®
Managing Director
Stordahl Capital Management
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